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The IMF has urged central banks to prioritize economic growth as inflation moderates, while warning that escalating regional conflicts and rising protectionism threaten the global economy. The Fund maintains a 3.2% growth forecast for this year but has downgraded its 2025 outlook from 3.3% due to concerns over productivity growth.
US Treasuries are under pressure as concerns over rising global public debt and increased odds of a Trump presidency impact yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.20%. Despite this volatility, the macroeconomic outlook remains favorable for fixed income, with expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, supported by solid investment-grade corporate bond fundamentals. Investors are advised to shift excess cash into quality fixed income to enhance portfolio income as the rate-cutting cycle progresses.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained India's GDP growth forecast for FY25 at 7%, as revealed in its latest World Economic Outlook. The economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in FY26, with a reported 6.7% expansion in the first quarter of FY25. Despite signs of a slowdown in the second quarter, the Reserve Bank of India has kept its FY25 forecast at 7.2%, anticipating 7.4% growth in the latter half of the fiscal year.
The IMF reports that the global fight against inflation is nearly complete, with a projected decline to 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from 5.8% in 2024. However, rising geopolitical risks, market volatility, and weaker long-term growth prospects pose significant challenges, particularly for lower-income countries. The IMF warns that while inflation expectations remain stable, vigilance is essential as financial market turbulence and geopolitical tensions could threaten economic stability.
Zambia is exploring a debt-for-nature swap to alleviate its overseas debt obligations, according to Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane. This approach aims to refinance government debt while directing savings towards environmentally sustainable projects, following a recent restructuring of $3 billion in eurobonds. Musokotwane indicated that the government is closely considering this option but has not yet finalized a plan.
The International Monetary Fund suggests that Poland's government could expedite interest-rate cuts by reducing budget spending sooner. While advising the central bank to maintain tight monetary policy throughout next year due to inflation risks, the IMF also calls for fiscal measures to consolidate state finances starting in 2025.
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imf warns of economic risks from conflict and protectionism
15:56 22.10.2024
fixed income outlook remains positive amid rising yields and economic resilience
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IMF maintains India's GDP growth forecast at seven percent for FY25
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15:00 22.10.2024
Zambia explores debt-for-nature swap to support environmental projects
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14:23 22.10.2024
imf suggests budget cuts could accelerate interest rate reductions in poland
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